000
AXNT20 KNHC 310415
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 31 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 27W, south of 20N,moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection isobserved from 10N to 15N and between 24W and 28W.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 47W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 44W and 50W.
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is along 82W, south of20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present along the northern end of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast ofMauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W and to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to12N and between 35W and 44W. Similar convection is seen from 08Nto 13N and between 50W and 60W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough along the NW Gulf coast and plenty of tropicalmoisture result in scattered showers over the north-central Gulfwaters. Meanwhile, strong showers and isolated thunderstorms thatdeveloped earlier today over western Yucatan are moving into theeastern Bay of Campeche waters. The basin is under the influenceof a weak pressure gradient, resulting in moderate or weaker windsand 2-4 ft seas.
For the forecast, a persistent trough of low pressure over thenorthwestern Gulf will meander near the coast through much of the next week, supporting moderate to locally strong convection. Some slow development of this system is possible if it remains offshore. Gusty and erratic winds and elevated seas are possible near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected into the middle of next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave andassociated convection occurring across the basin.
A few showers are evident in the SW Caribbean, especially near thecoast of southern Nicaragua, and also near the southern coast ofCuba and western Hispaniola. Generally dry conditions prevailelsewhere. A ridge located south of Bermuda supports fresh to occasionally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in thecentral Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometersatellite pass. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderateseas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue across central portions of the basin through Sat as thepressure gradient between a central Atlantic ridge and theColombian low persists. The highest winds are expected off thecoast of Hispaniola each night. A tropical wave currently over the central tropical Atlantic could see gradual development overthe next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves andassociated convection occurring across the basin.
A surface trough along extending from 30N78W to the northern coastof Cuba, divergence aloft and abundant moisture sustain scatteredshowers west of 75W, affecting parts of the Bahamas, Cuba andsouthern Florida. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic isdominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent scatterometersatellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly tradewinds off NE Hispaniola, including at the entrance of the WindwardPassage. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresheasterly breezes and moderate seas are found south of 28N andwest of 55W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerlywinds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere,moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas areprevalent.
For the forecast, ridging over the central Atlantic is maintaining amodest pressure gradient across much of the basin. Winds will veer to the SE on Sat west of 75W as the ridge axis shifts eastward. Surface troughing and weak mid-level flow will continueto support scattered moderate to locally strong convection nearthe Bahamas over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave currently overthe central tropical Atlantic could develop into a tropicaldepression some time next week while it moves westward, reachingthe Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week. Elsewhere, another tropical wave between the west coast of Africaand the Cabo Verde Islands could see slow development through late next week while it moves slowly to the west- northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
$$Delgado
